r/technology May 15 '22

Elon Musk wants to know how many fake accounts Twitter has, but experts say his approach is all wrong Social Media

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/14/elon-musk-has-wrong-approach-to-count-fakes-spam-on-twitter-experts.html?
1.2k Upvotes

663

u/PhyterNL May 15 '22

It's not wrong (well technically it's wrong), it's purposeful. He intends to pull out of the deal and before paying the $1B contract cancelation penalty, he plans to sue Twitter for basing the contract on false information. People, it's obvious what's going on here. Musk fucked up and now he wants out.

282

u/whartonone May 15 '22

Yeah but that’s on him. You’re supposed to do due diligence before making offer.

Unless he can prove they misrepresented.

297

u/yankinfl May 15 '22

He knew about all the bots. He stated publicly that he was going to get rid of them. Now he wants to claim he was misled. I think he never had any intention of completing the purchase and now he doesn’t want to pay the $1B fee. Everything is theater for this guy and his massive ego. Here come the lawsuits - get yer popcorn ready.

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u/whartonone May 15 '22

Prolly right. He knew about bots. But now he’s claiming actually bots higher than he was led to believe.

Social media companies valued in large part on MAUs and network moat.

29

u/Maktesh May 15 '22

I think Musk will win, to be honest. The claim that such a small percentage of accounts are legitimate users is likely off-base. All of this can be used to drive down the price

14

u/duderguy91 May 15 '22

There is a clause in the agreement that has been reported on. It’s requires the estimates provide by Twitter to be off by enough to create a “Material Adverse Effect”. So being off by a couple percent isn’t gonna cut it when he inevitably backs out.

10

u/Giancolaa1 May 15 '22

Didn’t twitter claim it’s under 5% of bots. If it comes out that it’s 10% or higher, musk will be able to walk away from this deal, no doubt in my mind about that.

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u/duderguy91 May 15 '22

Yes if it’s double the estimates, that would constitute him being able to back out for sure. But I doubt the estimates are off by that much. If Twitter signed off on that language, they should have an idea of where the real number is.

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u/Giancolaa1 May 15 '22

I don’t know. They make a killing from advertising. It’s in their interests to lowball the amount of bots because it makes their assets look better than they really are

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u/whartonone May 15 '22

And the price should be lower. The market has cratered and Twitter fundamentally is just “ok”

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u/capt-yossarius May 15 '22

I also suspect he plans to pull out, but not for the reason stated.

Owning Twitter makes the Tesla plants in China vulnerable to coercion from the CCP.

They can demand anti-CCP rhetoric on Twitter be censored, and if Twitter refuses, the CCP can disrupt production or even evict those plants.

In the long run, it's better to just invent some excuse to back out of the deal. Typical billionaire bullshit.

19

u/whartonone May 15 '22

Great point on the CCP

5

u/Tex_Ritter_ May 15 '22

Yea it is. Like it or not, china is a large cog in the wheel of commerce. Hate them all you want. Then count how many things you willingly purchased that was produced by them.

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u/whartonone May 15 '22

That's not the point. They are an authoritarian government whose goal is global hegemony. But by all means, enjoy your discount products at Walmart

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u/revolting_peasant May 15 '22

Yeah but if he agreed a price before that happened and he didn’t foresee it why should the price be lower now? That’s not how buying things usually work

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u/Born-Ad4452 May 15 '22

It’s not buying a can of beans though. There’s a whole phase of due diligence after the ‘Letter of Intent’ or however this deal was defined.

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u/FOOLS_GOLD May 15 '22

I doubt it. Musk is mad because he didn’t pay attention to how Twitter quantified their bot ratio. He’s made it more than clear in subsequent tweets. He’s fucked. So much for being a genius when you’re modus operandi was literally to own the libs. Impulsivity is the most obvious trait of his narcissistic pathology.

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u/Tonkarz May 15 '22

The real question is whether the 5% figure being incorrect is enough to allow Musk to leave the contract.

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u/Used-Towel5687 May 15 '22

I agree, everybody is so trigger happy to hate on the rich guy these days lol this makes the most sense tho

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u/get_off_my_train May 15 '22 edited May 15 '22

r/conservative in ruins now that their messiah isn't going to buy their most hated liberal social media platform

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u/burkechrs1 May 15 '22

It doesn't matter what he thinks, what matter legally, is what Twitter told him. If Twitter told him "no more than 5% of users are fake" and it turns out 20% of all registered accounts are fake then he wins the game.

But at the end of the day idk how anyone can be mad at this. If Twitter lied to shareholders and made themselves look bigger than the are then fuck those execs, sue them to oblivion and press charges. If musk ends up holding an empty bag then I guess that's his problem

The only people that should have an issue with this are twitter/musk fanboys that refuse to hold Twitter/musk accountable even if doing so completely fucks them over.

Personally I couldn't care less what happens to musk but I really do believe society would be better off of everyone in charge of Twitter got fucked over and it imploded and stopped being such a powerful tool.

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u/Archangel004 May 15 '22

If Twitter told him "no more than 5% of users are fake" and it turns out 20% of all registered accounts are fake then he wins the game.

More likely, they said, "According to our calculations, 5% of our users are fake and we can say this with a confidence of x% and margin of error of y%. However, this value might be far lower than the actual value"

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u/SponConSerdTent May 15 '22

I'm not sure you would be correct if Twitter wasn't knowingly misrepresenting the data. If Musk can prove that the higher-ups at Twitter knew the numbers in their contract with Musk were wrong, definitely.

But if he can't prove that, I don't think he would win. Especially since it sounded like the contract included the methodology they used to determine the number of bots.

Musk knew how they estimated it, and what answer they got when he signed the contract. He could have looked at their methodology and if he thought it was flawed, asked for a new contract where they used some other method for estimating bots.

I know nothing about contract law though, so I definitely could be wrong.

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u/yankinfl May 15 '22

Can’t disagree with you about social media and it’s power (as we interact on social media). My point was, Lonny made the offer knowing about the bots; now he wants to dump the deal because…bots. Its all bullshit with this guy, all the time.

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u/Cum-souffle May 15 '22

BotSentinal estimates that 10-15% of twitter users are bots. This is a minimum of 2-3x the number stated by Twitter. That is significant.

I don't think Elon plans to pull out, but maybe negotiate a better deal.

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u/Cobalt613 May 15 '22

Absolutely he knew about the bots as he himself benefitted from them when his stake in Tesla needed a boost. He's as phoney as his re-writing of his childhood. Apartheid Richie Rich got busted!

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u/OkNeck1298 May 15 '22

Plus he just lost a lot of money on crypto didn’t he?

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u/Fair-Ad4270 May 15 '22

The stock market has gown down a lot for tech stocks. Musk is suddenly much less rich and Twitter less valuable. He is probably trying to walk back his offer or maybe get a better deal

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u/Enough_Island4615 May 15 '22

The point is that Twitter knew about the bots and has been bullshitting everybody.

6

u/FullRegalia May 15 '22

elon already knew there were a bunch of bots, so that doesn't really work.

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u/Emiya_1 May 15 '22

I think Elon is renegotiating terms, though whether to try to bail or to try to get a lower price, I do not know. I don't particularly think he should own it.

As far as whether Twitter knew or not, well, to an extent it is irrelevant. Musk is a big boy with essentially infinite resources at his disposal. If he didn't have the necessary research done prior to making an offer, well, I just can't feel sorry for him. Hell, he could probably quietly call in a few employees at Tesla that used to work for Twitter and quietly ask them how bad it really was? It might be pushing an NDA the employees have that is still in force from Twitter, but, well, it would be unlikely to ever come to anything.

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u/IWillGetTheShovel May 15 '22 edited May 15 '22

Yeah but that’s on him. You’re supposed to do due diligence before making offer

That's not true. You do due diligence before finalizing a purchase, but usually offers open up the channels to do the due diligence. If you ever purchase a house you'll follow this exact process (unless you're an idiot that likes to buy things without doing due diligence).

First you take a tour. Then if you like it you submit your offer. If the seller accepts your offer you enter a temporary stage where you can send inspectors out to look at the house. Usually you're given a week or two. And yes you can back out if you don't like what you find. The banks and stuff can also pull the rugs out at any time up until you meet and sign the actual purchase contracts.

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u/whartonone May 15 '22

I should have said between the offer acceptance and close of the deal - you do DD.

18

u/IWillGetTheShovel May 15 '22

Isn't that what he's doing?

4

u/whartonone May 15 '22

It thought the deal was closed.

Now he’s wanting to go back to DD.

(unless he’s claiming in DD he was misled)

12

u/IWillGetTheShovel May 15 '22

Last I heard, he made and offer, Twitter accepted. I don't even think his offer was made a month ago yet (maybe more time has passed than I thought?)

It would be highly irregular for a business purchase to close that quickly as both sides will want to cross their Ts and dot the I's

7

u/whartonone May 15 '22

True. Plus it needs to go thru regulatory approval.

Barring this offer the stock would probably be in the 30s given the market and comps.

Hindsight 20/20, but he’d have been better off waiting.

He’s either looking to bail or for Twitter BOD to accept lower offer.

7

u/IWillGetTheShovel May 15 '22

Yes, let's not forget the government is going to so it's normal posturing about antitrust despite not ever actually preventing any of it. This does usually take a few months so they can appear as if they did something.

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u/dikembemutombo21 May 15 '22

He made an offer. The board if Twitter accepted the offer. There was consideration from both parties, Twitter for $40+ billion. The terms of the offer itself can change in non-material ways, but it will not change the fact that there is likely a formal contract. It appears Elon is trying to get out of this like his promise to fix world hunger.

2

u/IWillGetTheShovel May 15 '22

The terms of the offer itself can change in non-material ways, but it will not change the fact that there is likely a formal contract.

That's normal though. Back to the house example, upon acceptance of the offer you usually have to put up some capital as a deposit. There are things that are acceptable to pull out for and things that aren't. For instance, the easiest way out of a contract to buy a house is to claim you didn't like something that showed up on the inspection. You'll get your deposit back. It literally can be just about anything. The bar is pretty low. If you're dumb enough to say "I changed my mind" or your financing falls through, they keep your deposit.

Seems like Musk is basically doing the equivalent of claiming there was something he didn't like in the inspection. Which usually has a pretty low bar...he can probably pull out at any time too, he just has to pay the penalty. So this is basically to just keep his billion.

2

u/dikembemutombo21 May 15 '22

Well… partly. The contract in your example is a contract with a CONDITION that there be a satisfactory inspection. Otherwise the inspection example wouldn’t be relevant. Obviously, we don’t know of any Any conditions in the musk/Twitter agreement. Absent any possible condition, I would say Musk is trying to establish there isn’t actually that big of a user base meaning Twitter inflated their numbers and didn’t accurately portray their financial health. Those kinds of numbers would not be available to musk prior to his “inspection” so he is trying to argue Twitter withheld relevant info meaning there is no meeting of the minds and no agreement

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u/Enough_Island4615 May 15 '22

You should have, but didn't.

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u/BafangFan May 15 '22

Twitter wasn't listed For Sale. Musk was attempting a hostile takeover. Twitter's board inserted a poison pill into their bylaws to prevent Musk from being able to buy enough shares to gain control.

After Musk raised enough capital to buy all the shares, Twitter had no choice but to relent.

For sure Musk has more access to the books after forcing the offer - but he shouldn't have forced the offer if he didn't know what he was buying.

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u/DarkElation May 15 '22

All these M&A experts just keep getting it wrong. It is exactly during this phase of acquisition where an entity figures out what they are buying.

You can only make an offer based on publicly available data, after offer acceptance is when you get access to non-public data. It’s not uncommon for something to be uncovered during this phase that derails the acquisition.

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u/Icy-Philosopher5446 May 15 '22

Nope. Due dil comes after offer and before closing. (All I do is M&A)

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u/Perle1234 May 15 '22

Ding ding ding. Exactly.

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u/SweaterInaCan May 15 '22

Of course they did come on.

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u/feor1300 May 16 '22

Yeah but that’s on him. You’re supposed to do due diligence before making offer.

Unless he can prove they misrepresented.

That's actually the point. From what I read there's actually a minimum performance clause in the contract so he might not actually have to sue, but either way he wants to gather evidence that Twitter's lying about how many of their users are bots. If he uses a suspect methodology for testing for that, he can "massage" the numbers to the point that he can claim Twitter was misrepresenting and either invoke that Clause or take them to court to get out of the deal without a penalty.

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u/chadwicke619 May 15 '22

I’m not sure why you’re being upvoted but that’s absolutely not how it works. Do you think people get homes inspected before they put in offers? 🤫

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u/whartonone May 15 '22

Ummm. I’m a sell-side M&A digital media banker.

Offer is made. Accepted. Then DD. Then close.

Try again Sherlock.

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u/chadwicke619 May 15 '22

You literally just said he was supposed to do due diligence before making an offer….? Are you ok, Mr Media Banker?

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u/dojabro May 15 '22

In the public filings they said <5% were bots. They did this by sampling 100 accounts.

He’s just doing the same standard.

He’s definitely trying to pull out or renegotiate the deal though

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u/seamsay May 15 '22 edited May 15 '22

He’s just doing the same standard.

Two things:

  1. As far as I'm aware, we have absolutely no proof that this is how Twitter estimated the number of bots other than "Elon said".
  2. Even if Twitter did only use a sample of 100 accounts, what they didn't do was go to @twitter ignore the first 1000 followers then look at every 10th follower (at least nobody, including Elon, is claiming they did). Not only is that sampling scheme more complex and less random than just randomly sampling in a conventional way, but only looking at the followers of a single account is going to skew the sample massively. If he genuinely wants to do this in good faith he should work with Twitter to get a random sample of all users. 100 is honestly a fine sample size, it's not great but the real issue is his absolutely crap sampling method.

Edit: Actually I don't think 100 is a fine sample size, but either way the sampling method is just atrocious.

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u/whartonone May 15 '22

Issue with Twitter is its network moat. Virtually impossible to replicate

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u/AtheistGuy1 May 15 '22

Unless he can prove they misrepresented.

Which they have been.

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u/PhyterNL May 15 '22

Intentionally though? I think Twitter's explanation for the discrepancy was rational and well explained. Perhaps more telling, Twitter was forthcoming with the correction without prompting, which is not something I would expect from a board hoping to land a deal worth $44 Billion dollars. I think at best Musk can hope to leave the deal without the $1B penalty. Which is going to be fine with him. It's going to piss off his would-be investors who have contracts of their own.

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u/AtheistGuy1 May 15 '22

Intentionally though?

It doesn't matter. If you're sloppy enough to use 100 accounts as a sample to detect bots, or count alts as multiple active users, or reject a huge offer over market value when you know you're having a bad quarter, you've being reckless, at best.

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u/Sptsjunkie May 15 '22

Also makes Musk look pretty dumb to agree to buy a company for $44B without doing basic due diligence.

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u/AtheistGuy1 May 15 '22

DD comes after you make the offer. Do you send inspectors to a random house before you make an offer to buy it? No, you make your offer, send the inspector, then find out if you want to go on with the transaction.

Imagine just some guy showing up at your house before anyone's even expressed interest. Yeah, no.

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u/and_dont_blink May 15 '22

Perhaps more telling, Twitter was forthcoming with the correction without prompting,

I don't think this is true, this is all within the day. Musk said he'd do this inane way of finding how many actual users there were (sampling 100 of his followers), and everyone tripped over themselves saying how dumb it was. But then he discloses he's doing it because that's how Twitter did it, and Twitter puts him on notice for violating the NDA to signed to learn it. Every tech journalist under the sun is asking Twitter WTF right now, and I'm sure many shareholders and even the gov are too (because the 5% stuff is in the SEC filings made by Twitter).

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u/Zalenka May 15 '22

He did some doodoo diligence only. He should have bought fox news or Sinclair instead.

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u/Enough_Island4615 May 15 '22

That's what he's doing. He's publicly divulging Twitter's bullshit methodology.

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u/Helenium_autumnale May 15 '22

How is he doing that? I don't get it.

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u/sinascendant May 15 '22

By telling everyone how Twitter estimates bots, which is terrible.

I can't stand Elon but he has a point in this case. Taking a sample of 100 users is not enough to be statistically accurate, the margin of error would be something like +/- 12%. They'd need a sample size of around 2k minimum to get a reasonable sample size, and honestly I'd go 10k just to eliminate any doubt.

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u/MrPhatBob May 15 '22

With the resources that Twitter have I would be expecting a whole host of algorithms to ensure "content quality", like: Matching IP addresses with account's claimed location. Velocity checking of tweet rate. Content keyword checking, not to enforce banned words but to profile hostility and message intent.

They appear to be able to profile for advertising reasons, and protect themselves against copyright action, but not to protect their quality of service.

It's almost as if they trade on a level of toxicity.

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u/vladfix May 15 '22

Claimed he was buying Twitter to get rid of the bots...Now says does not buy it because of more than 5% bots? Is he running his investments using Tesla Beta FSD ?

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u/CalamariAce May 15 '22

Or he's using it as a bargaining chip to pay less for the company.

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u/Helenium_autumnale May 15 '22

Agreed. Wait: what's this? Hmm, look guys, a lawsuit from some Florida police who aren't thrilled with Musk screwing around with Twitter, which forms much of their pension fund holdings.

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u/mrbriandavidanderson May 15 '22

Yep. Purposeful as hell. Like a little rich kid who didn't get his way and is trying to treasure his toys and leave. The only problem is his tricks won't work while he's completely under the microscope. His own arrogance fucked him.

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u/Helenium_autumnale May 15 '22

None of these rich fucks like Trump, Musk, &c. can cope with accountability.

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u/HarleyLovesDuck May 15 '22

can we say he didnt expect them to take the offer?

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u/yankinfl May 15 '22

Exactly. It was all “twitter isn’t for sale” and he offers what the fuck money and they accept. Oopsie. Now Lonnybitch doesn’t want to sell enough stock to fork over that much money. He’d get completely fucked in taxes and drive down the price of Tesla stock. So now cue the histrionics. He doesn’t need to buy twitter, he needs to get the fuck off of it.

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u/ktenzweiler May 15 '22

"basing the contract on false information" that's called fraud. Yes, he can sue if Twitter commits fraud against its shareholders by deceiving the public on how many fake accounts are using the platform.

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u/He_looks_mad May 15 '22

Yup. It was all a bluff from the beginning.

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u/Dcassle May 15 '22

He didn’t fuck is he knew what he was doing the whole time. It doesn’t take a genius to realize that twitter is ridden with bots

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u/iamonewhoami May 15 '22

Are we sure he didn't know/suspect this all along?

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u/InclusivePhitness May 15 '22

It’s irrelevant if Twitter lied about how many bots there were.

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u/iamonewhoami May 15 '22

It actually changes both the legal implications and the narrative if he knew that what they had disclosed was a lie

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u/59ekim May 15 '22

How did he fuck up exactly?

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u/Enough_Island4615 May 15 '22

He's also publicly putting on display Twitter's ridiculously flawed method they use to come up with their numbers. He's calling them out without technically calling them out.

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u/wtf-you-saying May 15 '22

I'm just some random dude on reddit, and even I know the sample size is much too small for any meaningful data analysis.

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u/Legal_Wallaby2097 May 15 '22

It's just a negotiation tactic, it's nothing to do with actually checking for bots.

FYI,

"Researcher Studies Tesla’s Twitter Bot Boost
Did Fake Fans Push Popular Electric Vehicle Builder’s Stocks Skyward?"

https://today.umd.edu/researcher-studies-teslas-twitter-bot-boost

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u/labormarketguide May 15 '22

I figure more bots 🤔 cheaper the price?

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u/AR_Harlock May 15 '22

It's easier for him to do percentage that way...

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u/Ylduts May 15 '22

That’s the point. That is what twitter used.

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u/NewFuturist May 15 '22

He's either the dumbest "genius" billionaire out there who doesn't understand mathematics or he is being purposely deceitful as a manipulation tactic. There is no other option.

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u/newonetree May 15 '22

Is it not an option that he is using the same metric as Twitter used? 100 random accounts?

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u/ZatchZeta May 15 '22

I'm a rando too and love math. So let's break down why 100 is too small.

Let's say we're miners and we're looking for raretanium. Raretanium is so rare that there's a 1% chance of finding it.

But wait, I have a ray that can scan a rock for raretanium that's right 9 out of 10 times. Raretanium goes for a high price, at about $1000 for a whole kilo, but I like your face, so I'll sell you this rock that I scanned for $200.

Should you take it?

If you answered yes, then I hope that 200 was burning a hole in your pocket.

Why?

Let's say that there's 1,000 boulders in the mine. And only 1% of them is raretanium. That would mean that there's only 10 raretanium. Pretty rare.

But if we scanned all the boulders, then there's a 1 in 10 chance we'll get a false positive. Indicating on average 100 boulders will set off the scanner despite not containing rarertanium. And the inverse can be true too, as there'll be a 1 in 10 chance that raretanium won't even set off the scanner.

How does figure in our current situation?

If there's 1 bot in the sample of 100, then that would indicate there's a 1 to 100 chance that an account is a bot. Now if we divide the average amount of Twitter accounts 350 million, that would mean that there are around 3.5 million bots. Pretty big number for a low ball answer and likely very innaccurate.

Then imagine if it were 2 in 100, 10 in 100, 20 in 100.

Hence why you need a correct sample size that's proportionate to the population you're studying.

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u/ndnbolla May 15 '22

Blame twitter since that's the standard they set. Why waste any more time and money on researching a bigger sample if you only need 100 to prove your point?

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u/crownpr1nce May 15 '22

Because 100 is not representative of the whole Twitter. The margin of error on 100 would be in the tens, meaning his stats would be way off.

Then there is the whole "is your sample size representative". Talking @Twitter followers might be representative, it might not.

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u/Blubsiclu May 15 '22 edited May 15 '22

They are making multiple samples of 100, not studying 100 users in total. It could be millions...

Edit: this is what I understood after the first tweet. But after reading the following ones, you are right, they are studying only 100 followers of a single account.. wtf

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u/crownpr1nce May 15 '22

You'll have to give a source on that. His tweet literally says he's take 100 account

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u/Blubsiclu May 15 '22

Yes you are right, this does not make any sense! What type of study is that xD

"Musk has also invited others to follow the same process and determine the percentage of bots on Twitter. "I invite others to repeat the same process and see what they discover," Musk wrote"

"If we collectively try to figure out the bot/duplicate user percentage, we can probably crowdsource a good answer," added Musk. 

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u/postitnote May 15 '22

It's entirely possible that there isn't enough information on the methodology that twitter uses. I mean, he tweeted it. There's only so much he can say. Whatever process is actually used at Twitter would be well documented so it can be repeated and automated for it to be useful.

This just seems like a case where there is so little information that everyone thinks they know everything about the situation to give their opinion on statistics.

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u/[deleted] May 15 '22

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u/dingusdongus May 15 '22 edited May 15 '22

Sure, it doesn't prove it, but since you only have a 0.0000282% chance of getting at least 75 heads if it's not weighted, you can certainly assume it is.

Edit, since the comment I replied to was deleted: something was said to the effect of, "if you flip a coin 100 times, and get 75 heads, it doesn't prove that the coin was weighted."

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u/BetBeacon May 15 '22

Lol I was gonna say the p-value for that is magnitudes smaller than .05.

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u/J_Skirch May 15 '22

Excuse me what? That's pretty strong evidence towards the coin being weighted.

Also, the minimum accepted sample size in statistics is 30 so it certainly is acceptable in some cases.

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u/sweetfeet009 May 15 '22

With a 95% CI and a 5% MoE they would need at minimum 385.

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u/Ibbuk May 15 '22

Small samples introduce bias. If Elon and his fanboys were really that smart, they'd know this.

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u/TomSwirly May 15 '22

I have a degree in math. You are right - and that isn't even the worst part - the "sample" is chosen from one person's followers, so it isn't even "random" at all.

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u/Zlifbar May 15 '22

Elon Musk is making up excuses to try to get out of the deal as he watches that Tesla stock-backed margin call looming.

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u/orange_sox May 15 '22

I will be surprised if it is anything less than 1/3 the accounts.

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u/RedactedV May 15 '22

He's implying that the owners may have engaged in fraud that should affect the share value... if they back out of the deal he has them.

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u/restless_vagabond May 15 '22

Musk is pulling a McConnell and is fillibustering his own deal.

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u/cuckyboySPH May 15 '22

What does filibuster mean?

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u/chimply May 15 '22

To filibuster (filibustering) means to speak at length to kill time in a political context, usually to delay something from happening (or in the hopes of preventing it from ever happening). You can fact check me with a dictionary.

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u/chemistryunderground May 15 '22

He's going to talk to each of them, learn their secrets, breed with their bot women and, in time, our differences will be forgotten.

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u/EddieStarr May 15 '22

Musk wants to back out of his purchase because 44BN was WAY too much and he knows it

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u/dangerousmacadamia May 15 '22

Feels like an impulsive decision tbh

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u/TimeForPCT May 15 '22

Reddit was talking about what a lowball it was before the offer was accepted. Now it's WAY too much.

lmao.

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u/CheekyRubberDuck May 15 '22

Fuck elon musk

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u/FatherPyrlig May 15 '22

One of the world’s biggest tools.

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u/BlaineWriter May 15 '22

There is always a right tool for every job!

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u/[deleted] May 15 '22 edited 24d ago

[deleted]

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u/TomSwirly May 15 '22

No possible analysis of the data backs up your claim - let's see your numbers.

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u/macstar95 May 15 '22

That's a really bold claim considering all the tech existed before Elon. You could argue he "sped up the process" but for whom? lolI have a EV and thank FUCK its not Tesla.

Also, Tesla is so Anti consumer is fucking ridiculous. Have you seen the new Tesla bike? Lmao shit is so against consumers it's ridiculous. No thanks, Id rather spend pennies fixing my ride and not thousands.

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u/[deleted] May 15 '22 edited 24d ago

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u/TomSwirly May 15 '22

Translation: "I cannot back up any of my claims to the slightest extent."

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u/[deleted] May 15 '22 edited 24d ago

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u/macstar95 May 15 '22

All I will say is this.
What Elon has done hasn't made a noticeable difference in my life. I am not flying on a ship to space, using free wifi for everyone, driving a tesla or underground tunnels. It's too expensive, anti consumer and looks fucking stupid. However, what I have done is found smaller super awesome companies that provide cheaper, more consumer friendly alternatives and happily pay and support them. Alternatives exist and these smaller companies are extremely valuable.

Being Influential is one thing, having Influence on buying power is different.

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u/[deleted] May 15 '22

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u/[deleted] May 15 '22 edited May 15 '22

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u/dotdotdotdadadotdot May 15 '22

I hate how much I let this stupid douche take up space in my brain through thinking about how much he sucks

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u/adarkuccio May 15 '22

"BuT hE iS tHe GeNiUs oF oUr TiMe" /s

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u/NeatFrogs May 15 '22

That's you and the rest of Reddit. Except all of the people on here who hate him keep posting and upvoting and commenting about him so he never goes away. People just want someone to rage against.

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u/Separate-Owl369 May 15 '22

Id like to know how many fake accounts he has…lol.

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u/AgreeableJello6644 May 15 '22

Elongated way of chickening out.

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u/itsuks May 15 '22

Twitter stated in SEC papers that about 5% were estimated to be fake accounts, so Elon asks for proof of that assessment. The word expert these days is extremely devalued

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u/Dr-McLuvin May 15 '22

“Experts say” is the laziest headline ever.

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u/Kuwshi May 15 '22

It doesn't matter if the approach is right or wrong. Musk doesn't give a shit about that. He's just playing the stock market. Like he always does.

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u/[deleted] May 15 '22

It does affect advertising revenue of the platform. He should care.

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u/4d_lulz May 15 '22

He's not trying to buy it based on advertising revenue. He's buying it based on stock price. Which, incidentally, tanked after this story broke. No doubt he'll try to renegotiate at a lower bid once the 'bot' dust settles.

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u/WonderMonk007 May 15 '22

Well he overlooked advice/opinion of these desktop experts. Not sure he will give any heed to any of their future advice.

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u/reddideridoo May 15 '22

The Muskrat realized he fucked up bigtime and now wants to weasel out. His goal is to avoid paying the cancelation fee, nothing more.

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u/roox911 May 15 '22

“Experts” pfffff.

Everyone know there is only one true expert. ELON. And he is an expert. At. Everything. From astrophysics, to zebra husbandry, ELON doesn’t need your advise or opinion, he has already formulated the perfect answer.

And if he happens to be wrong, no worries, he’ll just go on to the next problem and it’ll be forgotten about in 6.3 seconds.

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u/blargflow May 15 '22

I’m amazed how few people understand sample sizes. If you have a data set that has a normal distribution, 100 isn’t a bad sample size.

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u/Similar-Lifeguard701 May 15 '22

Most of the bots I see on a daily basis are pro-Elon Musk which has always stuck me as ironic.

Especially the ones tweeting repeatedly some variation of the phrase "Raise your hand if you think X owes Elon musk, [list of other other celebs usually Joe Rogan], an apology"

I built up a list of obvious right wing bot networks lol.

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u/MagicOrpheus310 May 15 '22

He should be asking how many accounts are real people..?

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u/Maplethor May 15 '22

This is a con to get out of buying twitter. He cannot afford it.

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u/AntalRyder May 15 '22

He wanted the 100 number to rile people up, because he learned that Twitter used a sample size of 100 users to determine their bot percentage being under 5%. He is doing this to make a point.

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u/yankinfl May 15 '22

His everything is all wrong. I wish he’d just shut the fuck up and go away.

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u/[deleted] May 15 '22

Or lose his shirt buying up Twitter.

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u/Helenium_autumnale May 15 '22

He's gonna lose his shirt, but not due to his dumb Twitter games, but from the valuation of Tesla collapsing in the next couple of years as numerous other carmakers put EVs on the market.

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u/yankinfl May 15 '22

More reliable EVs. I was surprised when I read that Tesla is not considered a reliable car.

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u/Helenium_autumnale May 15 '22

I was too, given the price point. From what random buzz I hear VW is coming out with some appealing EV models. Someone elsewhere in a thread said their relative bought one, a smaller SUV model, and really liked it. I looked it up and thought it looked pretty stylish. We'll see how this all shakes out.

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u/TomSwirly May 15 '22

Or if not VW, one of half-a-dozen other companies hard at work on this.

These companies aren't actually ignorant buffoons - they have successfully made reliable cars for generations. That they move slower does not mean that they won't have a better product at the end.

And don't forget the millions of people who would never buy anything that gave a penny to Musk because he's such an awful person.

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u/ManBehavingBadly May 15 '22

Google customer satisfaction with Tesla cars, people are extremely satisfied with their Tesla purchases.

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u/[deleted] May 15 '22 edited 24d ago

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u/yankinfl May 15 '22

Haha! Nope. He didn’t invent electric cars, he didn’t create any technology.

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u/[deleted] May 15 '22 edited 24d ago

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u/jasoncross00 May 15 '22

He knows it wrong, it's absurd. He suggested it because it's the method Twitter used in giving him the number of bot accounts (less than 5%, they said) and he wants to show that if a bunch of people take a random sampling of just 100 followers of a big account like @twitter, you're gonna get horseshit results.

I mean I'm not here to defend the earth's wealthiest manchild memelord, but no serious article should frame it this way, especially when the articles themselves point out his reason.

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u/FranticToaster May 15 '22

I'm not sure what his game is with this one.

He's going to sample randomly 100 of Twitter's followers.

And he invites other people to do the same?

Technically, he's kind of crowd sourcing a sampling distribution. But why not just collect and analyze all the data at once?

All I can imagine is that it's obvious that any research he published on the subject would meet skepticism. "Of course you found that Twitter understated their bot followers. You benefit from that finding."

Crowd sourcing could help him mitigate that risk. Tons of independent sample analyses published and available for scrutiny. Could be hard to argue against results obtained in that way.

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u/420blazeit69nubz May 15 '22

It’s pretty obvious he’s trying to weasel his way out. Why would he not do this,if the deal hinges on it, BEFORE securing billions in funding?

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u/GottaGetAhead May 16 '22

Who are these "experts" and what are they an "expert" in? Serious and legitimate question... I always see these kind of titles and stories with the word "expert" in the title with the intention to make or change a narrative but with no real explanation... not defending Elon at all.. just see this bullshit wayyyyy too much to make a narrative to make and change people's perspective.. shits getting old..

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u/Ylduts May 15 '22

😂 people are dumb. He chose that number because that is what twitter used to conclude less than 5 percent of its users are bots. Whoosh.

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u/What_Is_The_Meaning May 15 '22

Yeah, lots of dumb dumbs on Reddit. It’s hilarious reading through these ignorant ass comments.

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u/newonetree May 15 '22

It literally says this in the article. The same article which has people saying it’s not statistically valid and that social media companies don’t use such small sample sizes.

It appears however, that Twitter indeed does use such small sample sizes.

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u/semperlegit May 15 '22

Some of us are just waking up to the fact that Musk supports Donald Trump. The fact he wants Trump back on Twitter is enough to end my appreciation for anything else he may have done to help the planet.

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u/semperlegit May 15 '22

After Musk's comment about Trump, Tesla stock lost 10%.

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u/aaalderton May 15 '22

They don’t even know, CP is rampant in twitter.

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u/DxrkWolfx May 15 '22

Club Penguin?

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u/Electrical-Bacon-81 May 15 '22

"Cheese Pizza"?

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u/Faliki May 15 '22

Creator points?

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u/[deleted] May 15 '22

I don't mind Elon being wrong. Do you ? It's his $44B at stake, not my $44.00.

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u/Ssider69 May 15 '22

First, the fakes following his own account alone make up more than 5% fake ratio. He knows this well, because he paid for all of them.

Second, it has nothing to do with actually finding the fake accounts. It has everything to do with finding a reason to back out.

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u/DragonOfChaos25 May 15 '22

I still find it incredibly funny how some people hate Elon Musk is trying to buy Twitter, but have no problem with the current share holders lol.

What difference does it make to you who is controlling Twitter?

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u/quantumized May 15 '22 edited May 15 '22

Haven't you heard, we collectively have to hate Elon musk. And we have to up vote every negative article that's posted numerous times everyday about him

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u/DragonOfChaos25 May 15 '22

Of course. My apologies, I accidentally threw the memo away.

Elon bad! Twitter good!

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u/Roll7ide May 15 '22

I’m guessing the experts are twitter employees. 😂

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u/Val_Fortecazzo May 15 '22

Basically every auditor I work with says that his sampling is laughable at best.

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u/KrakNchedda May 15 '22

his sampling is in line with Twitter's sampling. That is the issue.

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u/Aofwa May 15 '22

It seems obvious to me that he is trying to point out that Twitter's sampling method was wrong, and he is willing to use the same method because he is confident he will get different results that are in his favor.

That everyone in this thread thinks Elon doesn't understand basic statistics is hilarious.

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u/InclusivePhitness May 15 '22

Why would you need to speak to an auditor about sampling? It’s basic statistics. You don’t think 100 is a good enough sample size?

Ask your “auditor” friends what kind of sample size you would need for a certain confidence interval and error?

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u/Val_Fortecazzo May 15 '22

I don't need to, but as an accountant myself they are the most readily available experts. And I trust them more than some random musk fanboy.

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u/werdmouf May 15 '22

Elon is lying

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u/LeeBIanc May 15 '22

“Experts say his approach is all wrong” story of Elon’s life

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u/Think_Description_84 May 15 '22

That's because, and hear me out here, Elon is mostly an idiot when it comes to science and many technologies. Seriously though, every time he speaks or tweets about a deeply scientific or technical topic he literally proves it to experts of the field. My aha was his tweets around what he thought could be done with doge coin while the literal inventor of it said 'you all know it's literally designed to go to 0 right guys... The code is open source and that's the joke...guys.. guys?'

He's a half decent business man and he had solid tech chops... In the 90s. But since then he's just wealthy and good at getting crowds hyped up. Like a shitty version of Steve Jobs that was handed opportunity by apartheid emerald wealth.

Now is he using that lucky start to get some really smart people together to make some really great innovations. Hell yes. The rocketry alone is revolutionary. But is Elon actually responsible? Hell no, not even close to the tech.

He's as responsible as Jamie diamond is for your labor. His funding likely touches you but your work isn't his work.

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u/Cyb3rTruk May 15 '22 Silver

Experts also said his approach to cars was all wrong. Experts also said his approach to space flight was all wrong. Experts also said his approach to building tunnels was all wrong.

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u/topohunt May 15 '22

The tunnels haven’t panned out

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u/Val_Fortecazzo May 15 '22

No they didn't. Also they should have called his approach to building tunnels all wrong considering they turned out to be overpriced death traps.

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u/[deleted] May 15 '22

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u/Cyb3rTruk May 15 '22

False.

The “Experts” that they refer to in the article COULD tell you what it tastes like, considering they keep getting f***ed by him ;)

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u/AlphaChipWasTaken May 15 '22

Not even clever... If he's fucking them, people don't taste things through their vaginas or assholes...

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u/Striking-Ad8262 May 15 '22

Why are you being down voted

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u/Cyb3rTruk May 15 '22

This sub hates Elon

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u/TomSwirly May 15 '22

Musk goes out of his way to be hateful.

It was when Musk said to Bernie Sanders, "I thought you were dead," that I went from vague dislike to actual hatred.

You would only say this about one of the very few political figures who people on both left and right respect, one who is also old, if you wanted people to hate you.

I am happy to oblige.

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u/Cyb3rTruk May 15 '22

Is that a joke? No one on the right respects Bernie 😂

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u/scarboroughwa May 15 '22

‘Experts’ say. Experts. To Elon.

Off to crosspost to r/cringe

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u/ozfresh May 15 '22

Lol, its probably 90% bots. I imagine that reddit is too.

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u/ChickenAndRiceIsNice May 15 '22

Maybe he just made his offer to buy Twitter to expose that their user numbers are all a scam?

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u/whatsreallygoingon May 15 '22

Musk knew exactly what he was doing. He didn't make a mistake, because he had no intention of buying Twitter at that price (if at all).

He is using his leverage to force the exposure of rampant corruption in these big tech companies; which are agents of censorship and propaganda.

Once you look at it from this perspective, his actions are strategic and precise.

We can now see that share prices were based upon an illusion, created by an inflated user base comprised of bots and paid shills (which those paying attention have known all along).

There are more revelations to come. Twitter actively worked to suppress the Hunter Biden Laptop story to the extent that they effectively influenced the outcome of the 2020 election.

And this is just the tip of the iceberg. Musk is aware of the extent of corruption and is bent on bringing it to light. Is it for the sake of ego, profit or social justice? Is he acting on the behalf of the people for the betterment of society or is he entertaining himself because he likes to watch things burn?

Who knows? But things are about to get very interesting. Expect the big tech dominoes to fall.

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u/Jorycle May 15 '22

Jesus christ. This post reads like it comes before someone shoots up a pizza restaurant.

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u/[deleted] May 15 '22

How many of those experts have an IQ equal to or above ELon's?

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u/JT-Shelter May 15 '22

I would think this is on Twitter. How is Musk supposed to know the amount of fake accounts?

He would only be able to go by what Twitter told him. And if they misrepresented the figure that’s on them.

He should either get out of the deal or renegotiate the price.

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u/Independent_Lock6109 May 15 '22

What counts as a "fake" account? Someone that's not willing to give their 100% accurate personal information? Or obvious ones like "ForTehLulz" etc?

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